Record low levels of sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 may have been influenced by climate change according to researchers from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), reports the Press Association. The scientists analysed data from 18 different climate models and found that Antarctica’s historically low sea ice levels were a one-in-2,000 year event without climate change, but was made four times more likely because of it, it continues. During the winter of 2023, Antarctic sea ice was about 770,000 square miles below average, an area bigger than Alaska, reports Inside Climate News. The article quotes lead author Rachel Diamond, who says that: “We found that sea ice does begin to recover a little over subsequent years. But even after 20 years, it is still low. So I think that tells us it might stay low for the coming decades, relative to where we thought it would be.” The partial recovery “lends support to those hypothesising, based on the recent trends, that Antarctic sea ice may have entered a new regime featuring less and more fragile ice cover”, reports Axios. The Daily Mail and Agence France-Presse also have the story. (For more on Antarctic sea ice’s exceptional year in 2023, see Carbon Brief’s recent guest post by BAS scientist Dr Ella Gilbert.)

Meanwhile, a separate study looking at Thwaites Glacier has found that it is far more exposed to warm ocean water than previously believed, reports the Washington Post. The Antarctic glacier is the world’s widest and could raise global sea levels by up to two feet if it melts, it adds. It bobs up and down on daily tides, with warm seawater “shooting further under the ice” than scientists previously thought, which could increase the area under the glacier that is melting, the article continues. It quotes Prof Eric Rignot, a scientist with the University of California at Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who led the research, who says: “The water is able to penetrate beneath the ice over much longer distances than we thought. It’s kind of sending a shock wave down our spine to see that water moving kilometres.”

A new study has found than more than a third of the Amazon rainforest is struggling to recover from drought, warning of a “critical slowing down” of the ecosystem, reports the Guardian. The signs of “weakening resilience” raise concerns that the world’s “greatest tropical forest” and biggest terrestrial carbon sink is “degrading beyond a point of no return”, it continues. Following four supposedly “one-in-a-century” dry spells in less than 20 years, the study looked to investigate how “the frequency, intensity, or duration of droughts contributes to stability loss of Amazon vegetation”, the article notes. It found that 37% of mature vegetation in the region exhibited a slowing-down trend, and found that parts of the highly deforested and degraded south-eastern Amazon were most vulnerable to a “tipping event”, it adds. The Guardian quotes the paper’s lead author, Johanna van Passel, who says: “Trees are the last part of the ecosystem to show tipping points because they have the longest life cycle and are most able to cope. If we are already seeing a tipping point getting closer at this macro forest level, then it must be getting worse at a micro level.”

Unless the transition to renewables in Scotland is accelerated, tens of thousands of jobs could be at risk and “and time is running out to implement solutions”, reports the Times. A new report has found that there would need to be the equivalent of one offshore wind turbine installed per day until the end of the decade and 9,300 miles of cabling laid to meet jobs targets, it adds. Researchers in Aberdeen found that £200bn needs to be invested by 2030 in developing offshore wind, along with carbon capture, utilisation and storage, grid capacity and hydrogen production, the article notes. Of the more than 6,560 pathways for the offshore industry analysed by the researchers at Robert Gordon University, just 0.3% met the UN’s “just and fair” definition of a move to renewables, reports the Press Association. It quotes Prof Paul de Leeuw from Robert Gordon University, who says: “Accelerating the re-purposing of the North Sea as a world-class, multi-energy basin will ensure the sector can power the country for decades to come. The prize for the UK to get this right is enormous.” 

Elsewhere, German state-owned electricity producer Uniper’s UK boss says a lack of political leadership is putting new projects at risk, reports the Daily Telegraph. Mike Lockett told the publication that €8bn was “waiting to help rebuild Britain’s energy systems”, but it could all flow to “European rivals” unless ministers start making decisions about future electricity supplies, it adds. “This is the key challenge we face. We are happy to invest our earnings into decarbonisation. We can provide power generation and carbon capture on our sites.But we can only do it when there’s the proper infrastructure to take that CO2 away and dispose of it. And we have to have the financial incentive to do it as well,” said Lockett, the article adds.

In other UK news, a review of disruptive tactics used by protesters is expected to “stop short” of demanding named groups including Just Stop Oil should be banned, reports the Guardian. The 240-page report written by the former Labour MP John Woodcock and due to be laid before parliament today, is expected to instead recommend that groups that use protest to “create mayhem and hold the public and workers to ransom” should be proscribed in future, it adds. 

In recent years, major oil companies have made “splashy climate pledges”, promising to cut their greenhouse gases and take on climate change, but a new report suggests they do not stand up to scrutiny, reports the Guardian. Research and advocacy group Oil Change International looked at climate plans from the eight largest US and European-based international oil and gas companies – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies, it explains. The group found that none of their plans was compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, it continues. In a statement, David Tong  – global industry campaign Manager at Oil Change International – who co-authored the analysis, said: “There is no evidence that big oil and gas companies are acting seriously to be part of the energy transition”, the Guardian notes.

China’s Development Research Center of the State Council’s new energy study shows “new energy will remain an important engine of China’s new economy”, the economic news outlet Jiemian reports. The outlet adds that, according to this study, the total investment demand for the power systems will exceed 80tn yuan between 2020 and 2060 and that the country’s “low-carbon transformation will significantly drive economic growth, with energy power construction and equipment manufacturing alone contributing over 5% of GDP increase”.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that China has the “upper hand” in the China-Russia energy relationship. The outlet says that China’s gas demand is growing at a “manageable level” with “green transition proceeding apace”, whereas Russia is getting a “whiff of desperation” as Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping “parted ways last week without a deal on Power of Siberia 2” – a gas pipeline project Russian proposed to China. BBC News’ Russia correspondent Steve Rosenberg shared his TV report on Twitter and says that despite a “no limits partnership” between Russia and China, Russian media have shown that “limits exist” in this bilateral cooperation. The outlet cites Moskovsky Komsomolets, a Russian newspaper, saying that “China is an extremely complicated partner” and that “generally public opinion in China today is pro-Russian… but there are things which openly disappoint the Chinese”. In its Global Impact newsletter, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post says that Chinese president Xi’s Europe trip “succeeded” in bringing China’s two major European allies, Serbia and Hungary, “closer to its orbit”, and showed that “China can maintain cordial working relationships with some of Europe’s most powerful leaders”.

In other China news, the state news agency Xinhua quotes Ding Weishun, an official with the Ministry of Commerce, saying that “China’s NEV [new-energy vehicle] exports only constitute a small portion of its total production” and the country “predominantly caters to its domestic market, rather than flooding foreign markets with inexpensive NEVs”. State-run newspaper China Daily reports that “Chinese automakers have sped up efforts to expand in overseas markets”, with more than half a million Chinese-built vehicles shipped overseas in April. Reuters reports that according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s “imports of fuel oil rose 10% in April from a year earlier to 2.93m metric tonnes”, reaching its highest level since at least 2020.

Separately, Bloomberg carries an opinion article by columnist Clive Crook, titled: “Bidenomics makes dumb EV tariffs necessary”. Cook argues that the new US tariffs will “prevent EV prices in the US from falling as quickly as they otherwise would”. Xinhua publishes a comment article, arguing that new US tariffs on “clean energy products from China is not just economically myopic but also detrimental to its own transition to a greener economy”. In its “Trade Secrets” newsletter, the Financial Times argues that the “tariff-jumping” phase, where “China starts investing on a large scale” directly in markets such as the US and the EU, to “get around existing or prospective border barriers” is unfolding. Finally, Xinhua carries an article arguing that China’s “unwavering focus on low-carbon development” has not only “fostered a new energy boom” domestically, but also helped “speed up the world’s green shift”. The outlet quotes He Hailin, an official with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), saying that “all countries and regions must…create an environment for fair competition and free trade” to deal with climate change. 

Labour MP and former shadow chancellor John McDonnell argues the Labour’s “cautious programme is too limited to bring about the changes Britain needs” and that would keep the party in power in a piece in the Guardian. Unlike previous elections where there was at least “one big idea”, Labour is expected to “slide into office on the strength of the popular loathing of the Tories” in the upcoming election, writes McDonnell. While Labour leader Keir Starmer’s six policies were “small steps generally in the right direction”, they will not be enough to transform a society “on the edge of a devastating global climate crisis” amid other crises, he writes. While Labour will have some time when they reach office, the party must start making steps to tackle the “toxic agenda” it will inherit, adds McDonnell. “Unless by midterm Labour is showing that it has a programme capable of transforming our society, tackling the economic, social and environmental crises we face, then the fear is that the next Labour government could go the way of many social democratic administrations across Europe,” he concludes. 

In other comment, climate-sceptic fossil fuel industry veteran David Blackmon argues in the Daily Telegraph that despite Biden’s new tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars, former president Donald Trump’s “concerns about a looming bloodbath in the US auto market remain in effect pending further developments”. In Nikkei Asia, research fellow Ashley South explores a “new Myanmar is emerging from conflict and climate change”. And in the Guardian, writer and poet Rebecca Tamás makes the case for defending urban green spaces. 

Human-caused climate change has intensified “flash droughts” by 60%, 80% and 90% in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, respectively, a new study suggests. Flash droughts in south Asia are caused by persistent atmospheric patterns that block moisture transport, the researchers say. They are “more common and intense in the crop season, especially in central India, western Pakistan and eastern Afghanistan”. The findings suggest that “flash droughts will expand and worsen in the future, requiring adaptation measures for the water, agriculture, and energy sectors”.

New research explores “critical slowing down behaviour” – that is, slower recovery from recurrent small disturbances – of the Amazon rainforest as an indicator of a potential tipping point. Focusing on different aspects of drought, the researchers use satellite-derived indices of vegetation activity over 2001-19 as a proxy for the critical slowing down response. The results suggest “the intensity of extreme droughts is a more important driver of slowing down than their duration, although their impacts vary across the different Amazon regions”. The authors find that “most of the Amazon does not show critical slowing down”, but they add that the “predicted increase in droughts could disrupt this balance, signifying the importance of understanding these dynamics”.