The European Commission’s roadmap on how to cut emissions by 90% by 2040, which will be published later today, “no longer includes a reference to a 30% reduction target in methane, nitrogen and other gases linked to farming”, the Financial Times reports, citing EU officials. This follows “widespread demonstrations” by farmers in France, Germany, Belgium and Italy, the paper says. [See Carbon Brief’s analysis on whether and how the EU farmer protests relate to climate policies.] The newspaper adds: “In a letter to the commission on Monday, the Greens said farmers were ‘trapped in a system that was crushing them’ and Brussels should propose measures including a windfall tax on agri-food companies to support them.” Politico says: “The updated version of the plan, which is still subject to change, framed agriculture in a more positive light compared to earlier drafts. The role the sector plays in the EU’s ‘food sovereignty’ was also emphasised. This reframing is in line with a demand made by the powerful centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) – the political family of top EU executive Ursula von der Leyen and the European Parliament’s largest group.” The outlet adds: “Also excised [from the updated draft] were recommendations for citizens to make changes to their behaviour, like eating less meat, and a push to end fossil fuel subsidies.” Energy Monitor also reports on the upcoming proposals: “Some are also asking how serious it is to propose ambitious targets when the commission can see that EU national governments are not doing what they need to do to meet the existing 2030 target of 55% compared with 1990 levels. A recent analysis of draft EU national climate plans was dispiriting…The report looked at the national energy and climate plans of five countries: Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. It found them to have ‘significant transparency gaps as regards setting out how the 2030 emission reduction targets will be delivered’”. Reuters says today’s proposals will “kick off the political debate on the target”, but adds that “it will be up to a new European Commission, formed after EU elections in June, to make a final legal proposal”. Bloomberg also previews the proposals.

In other European news, the Guardian reports that “the European Green party has picked Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout as lead candidates to front its campaign ahead of elections in June that polls suggest will result in it losing seats”. Politico adds: “Green parties are falling in the polls amid a withering climate policy backlash and pressure to be more pragmatic. So while most Green parties remain atomic energy sceptics at heart – arguing that new nuclear plants are expensive and slow to build, and produce long-lasting radioactive waste – their united front is crumbling.”

Elsewhere, Politico reports: “Berlin has agreed to spend €16bn to build four major natural gas plants to meet electricity demand in a major overhaul of the country’s energy grid.” It continues: “The government has described the fossil gas power plants as ‘modern, highly flexible and climate-friendly’ because they will be capable of conversion to use clean-burning hydrogen gas produced from renewable sources. The plants are projected to produce up to 10 gigawatts of electricity. Tenders for the projects will begin soon…Environmental groups remain sceptical, however, with Greenpeace denouncing the strategy as a ‘perfect example of how the hype around hydrogen is just a smokescreen for more fossil gas.’” Reuters adds: “The ministry said hydrogen transition plans should be drawn up by 2032 to enable the plants to be fully switched to hydrogen between 2035 and 2040.” This comes as the Financial Times reports that the head of Germany’s main industry association “has slammed the German government’s energy policies as ‘absolutely toxic’”. The paper continues: “Siegfried Russwurm, head of the BDI, told the Financial Times that Germany’s climate agenda was ‘more dogmatic than any other country I know’. The country’s decision to phase out nuclear energy and coal and switch to renewables was placing businesses in Europe’s largest economy at a disadvantage to those in other industrialised nations, he said.” [As one consultant explained in a story in yesterday’s Daily Briefing, Germany is also attempting to “transform our industry from a world based on cheap Russian gas”.] The Daily Telegraph also covers the story. 

An enquiry by the Lords environment and climate change committee has concluded that the government must do more to counter “misinformation” on electric vehicles published in parts of the UK press, BBC New reports. The broadcaster continues: “As well as tackling misinformation the committee also called on the government to unlock funding more quickly for local authorities to install charging infrastructure. The Lords heard how local authorities had to wait eight months to have their applications processed for the On-street Residential Chargepoint Scheme (ORCS). The number of public chargers also varies significantly across the country. In the North West there are just 31 public chargers per 100,000 population compared with 131 in London.” The Guardian reports: “The study raised concerns over the secondhand market as most vehicles available for resale are sports utility vehicles (SUVs) or cars costing more than £40,0000 sold on by businesses and early adopters of EVs, meaning they are ‘out of reach of most consumers’. The peers said grants should be awarded to bring down costs to make the purchases cheaper and stimulating an ‘affordable’ market, before the subsidies are then tapered away when electric- and fossil fuel-powered cars reach the same price.” The Financial Times reports that the committee “criticised the government for ‘prematurely’ axing consumer grants for electric vehicles, missing targets on building chargepoints, and sending motorists ‘mixed messages’ about battery cars.” It continues: “While EV sales growth had slowed worldwide, the UK has fallen behind European rivals, in part because of ministers’ decision to phase out the plug-in car grant in 2022, the report said. The grant initially gave motorists up to £5,000 off the price of a new electric car. Affordability is the biggest factor putting off buyers, it found, adding there were only nine EV models on sale for less than £30,000 compared with 87 internal combustion engine-driven cars, as of September last year. EVs remain, on average, 35% more expensive to purchase, while significantly cheaper running costs are only available to people with charging points on driveways.” This comes as the Guardian reports on new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which show that more than a million battery electric vehicles have been sold in the UK since 2002. However, it adds: “The number of electric cars on UK roads is still dwarfed by those using fossil fuels. There were 35.1m cars on UK roads in 2022, of which 650,000 were pure electric.” [On Twitter, Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans explains how the UK’s first million EVs are saving users hundreds of millions a year in fuel costs and cutting petrol and diesel demand by hundreds of millions of  litres.] BusinessGreen reports that the numbers show January 2024 saw a 21% uptick in year-on-year electric vehicle sales. Covering the same figures, the Daily Telegraph says there is a “slow-motion car crash now unfolding in EV sales, with industry figures published on Monday showing that their market share slipped from 19.7% in December to just 14.7% in January”. The Times says that “Britons appear to be turning their backs on new electric cars, with the number of zero-emission vehicles sold to private buyers falling by 25% last month”. [The figures show that private vehicle sales including combustion-engine cars fell 16% overall, while fleet EV sales grew by 42%.] The Daily Mail also leads its coverage of the story with this figure. Elsewhere, the Times reports that “Arrival UK, an electric van start-up, has fallen into administration less than three years after a $13bn float, in a fresh blow to Britain’s green energy ambitions.” And Energy Monitor reports that “the global power industry experienced a 44% decline in the number of electric vehicles-related patent applications in Q4 2023 compared with the previous quarter”.

In other UK news, the Guardian reports that the UK’s energy and climate minister, Graham Stuart, met with the head of BP in February last year to ask about the incentives required to “maximise” extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea. According to documents seen by the newspaper following a freedom of information request, Stuart met with BP’s boss, Louise Kingham, just days after the company rolled back on its aim to cut its carbon emissions by 2030. This comes as the Financial Times reports that “BP has announced more share buybacks after reporting underlying profits of $13.8bn for last year”. According to the newspaper, BP’s earnings in 2023 were the second-highest since 2012.

Elsewhere, in a story trailed on its front page, the Financial Times reports that “thousands of workers in Port Talbot will lose their jobs next month as Britain’s biggest steelworks go green – raising questions about the consequences for the labour market from the net-zero transition”. The outlet continues: “Rishi Sunak promised in September that a taxpayer subsidy of £500mn for Tata Steel would ‘safeguard thousands of jobs’ at the totemic site in south Wales. But the prime minister’s pledge now rings hollow for the 2,800 employees left on the scrapheap by the Indian-owned conglomerate’s decision to close the last two blast furnaces at Port Talbot.” Elsewhere, Politico reports that Conservative MP Andrew Bowie was “quietly shuffled out of his role” overseeing “controversial” national plans to build more electricity pylons in December, after he campaigned against new pylons in his own constituency, the outlet says. It adds: “He retained responsibility for nuclear policy and took up the renewables brief as part of a mini job swap with fellow minister Graham Stuart.” The MailOnline and Press Association also cover the story.

Separately, the Times reports that Sir Keir Starmer has “recommitted” himself to investing £28bn in green infrastructure if elected in an interview with Times Radio. Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph covers the results of a new poll, which finds that “big businesses are ‘greenstalling’ on net-zero policies, delaying climate action because they are concerned about being criticised for doing the wrong thing”. Elsewhere, the Press Association covers a report which finds that “​​a lack of investment in home insulation and green tech cost households up to £1,900 on their energy bills last year”. And the Daily Telegraph reports that “manufacturers will cut the price of boilers by more than £100 if the government drops a controversial levy meant to drive take-up of heat pumps, the industry has said”. [See this twitter thread by Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans on the government’s planned clean heat market mechanism.]

Contentious new research, which suggests that the planet has already warmed by 0.5C more than previously thought, has received widespread media attention. [Carbon Brief’s coverage of the study highlights many concerns that scientists not involved with the study have with its framing and communication.] The Associated Press reports that the study uses proxy data taken from centuries-old sponges in the Caribbean to recreate hundreds of years of ocean temperatures. The study authors assert that the planet has warmed more than previously thought, hitting 1.7C warming in 2020, the newswire says. The outlet quotes the lead author of the study: “The big picture is that the global warming clock for emissions reductions to minimise the risk of dangerous climate changes is being brought forward by at least a decade…Basically, time’s running out.” However, it also quotes experts who are unrelated to the study and sceptical about the way its findings have been presented. The Financial Times reports that the study recreates 300 years of ocean temperatures. The authors say that human-caused warming began as early as the 1860s – about 80 years earlier than suggested by instrument measurements at the sea surface – it says. However, it adds: “Scientists said the sponge experiment was reasonable in itself, but many thought it insufficient to justify such wide-ranging conclusions about global warming trends.” The New Scientist quotes climate scientist Michael Mann, who was “far from convinced” by the work: “In my view, it begs credulity to claim that the instrumental record is wrong based on paleo-sponges from one region of the world.” The New York Times notes that the findings are based on samples from just six live sclerosponges. The Guardian calls the papers’ claim “bold and controversial”. Other outlets including the Independent, CNN, Forbes and Newsweek also cover the study. 

Researchers have suggested the addition to the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale which is used to measure hurricane intensity, the Washington Post reports. According to the newspaper, the scientists suggest the category 6 label could be given to any tropical cyclone with sustained winds of at least 192 miles per hour (mph) – an intensity that five storms have surpassed since 2013. The Guardian notes that when the scale was developed in the early 1970s, the highest scale was category 5, which includes all storms with wind speeds of 157mph or more. Axios notes that 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in 2013, Hurricane Patricia in 2015, and Super Typhoon Merant would all fall into the new category. Inside Climate News adds: “A 2018 review of global data on hurricanes showed that, since 1980, the number of storms with winds stronger than 124 mph, or a strong Category 3, have doubled, and those with winds stronger than 155 mph have tripled.” The Associated Press, the New Scientist, Axios, CNN, CBS News, and the Hill also cover the story.

This comes as BBC News reports that “at least three people have been killed by falling trees as a powerful storm drenches California bringing flooding, mudslides and power outages”. The outlet continues: “The record-breaking rainfall has led the governor to declare a state of emergency in eight counties. The storm is due to an ‘atmospheric river’ effect, a phenomenon in which water evaporates into the air and is carried along by the wind, forming long currents that flow in the sky like rivers flow on land. This slow-moving storm is the second atmospheric river to hit California in two weeks.” The Hill reports that “more than 554,000 people remain without power in California as of Monday”. The Wall Street Journal notes that “since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour, atmospheric rivers are expected to become stronger as climate warming increases”. Bloomberg reports that the storm has caused around $11bn in damages. Axios and Reuters also report on the storm.

China’s export of aluminium products to the EU, covered by the bloc’s carbon border tariff, “fell 30% in 2023”, according to the China nonferrous metals industry association (CNIA), reports Reuters. Meanwhile, the Securities Times says that China’s new regulations to govern its mandatory national carbon market (ETS), has granted the ministry of ecology and environment (MEE) “greater authority to regulate non-compliance in activities such as carbon market compliance, data reporting and verification”. Elsewhere, energy news outlet BJX News republishes an article written by Zhu Xue, professor at Renmin university, and posted on the official MEE website. Zhu writes that the law “establishes and improves the ETS…to ensure that the carbon emission trading activities have a legal basis” and “also provides an important institutional guarantee [from the Chinese government]…to actively and steadily progress towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”. The state broadcaster CCTV says that in 2024, the ETS entered its “third compliance period”, with the pace of upgrading and expanding accelerating, adding that the power industry is “formulating quota allocation plans that align with the requirements of the new power system under the dual-carbon goals”. 

In other news, the Economic Observer reports that the national railway administration has issued an implementation plan for “promoting low-carbon development in the railway industry to promote the construction of green railways”. The plan pledges that “by 2030, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from railway transportation will significantly decrease, and the total carbon emissions from railways will be expected to peak before 2030”. BJX News reports that the national energy administration (NEA) has pledged to improve its management of distributed solar development “in an orderly manner” and will research further incorporation of distributed solar into the grid. Chinese industry outlet IN-EN.com reports that, in January 2024, China approved 22 wind power projects with a total capacity of 5,020 megawatts (MW). BJX News reports that 25 thermal power projects have been approved and started construction in January. 

Elsewhere, the Communist Party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily has published an editorial under the nom de plume “Heyin”, which argues that the Chinese automotive industry is “advancing steadily on the path to high-quality development”. Caixin publishes an editorial, which says “there is now an opportunity for China to get away from the development model known colloquially as the “GDP championship” and instead “foster a competition for the highest quality of growth.” In the Financial Times, Gavekal Dragonomics’ Yanmei Xie argues that “China’s well-rehearsed industrial policy can be staggeringly wasteful but still produce stunning results…introducing market discipline to weed out the weak”, meaning that “the next round of consolidation in China’s EV industry will not deliver European carmakers a reprieve [but instead] will produce even more formidable rivals”. The state-run industry newspaper China Daily carries a comment by Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Energy Policy Studies at Xiamen University, who writes that “developed countries have been slow to fully honour their commitments to developing countries”. China Daily also carries a commentary by climate-sceptic commentator Bjorn Lomborg. Finally, IN-EN.com carries an analysis by Chen Zhen, director at the Southern Power Grid Energy Development Research Institute, who writes that “in response to the construction needs of the new power system, it is imperative to continually advance mechanism reforms and innovations, constructing a new power market system that aligns with green development”. 

“European politicians have to balance demands of farmers with the need for climate action,” says an editorial in the Financial Times. The paper notes that agriculture accounts for 10% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions and says farmers are being “hit” by “climate policies. It continues: “An associated ‘Farm to Fork’ strategy aims to reduce pesticides and fertilisers and reshape agricultural practices. Farmers claim these policies take little account of farming realities; the extra money the EU is providing for ‘eco-schemes’ does not cover their costs, and the bureaucracy required to get hold of it is so onerous that it’s barely worth the effort…The farming lobby has spotted a moment of maximum influence – with European parliament elections looming in June in which anti-establishment parties, especially of the far right, are already expected make big gains. Hard-right politicians have become adept at exploiting the backlash against the costs of the green transition, especially among rural populations. Centre-right parties are wary of being outflanked – and have cottoned on to the votes to be had from pledging a ‘pragmatic’ approach (which usually means diluting targets).” The editorial notes that the EU has already “had to water down or drop some flagship initiatives, including a nature restoration law aiming to reverse the loss of biodiversity”. It says that the EU will try to address pressing issues for farmers at an agriculture ministers’ meeting on 26 February. The paper concludes: “As with other parts of the green transition, Brussels and EU states need to find ways to hold firm to the overall goals while offsetting the impact on the most vulnerable groups – by phasing in measures over time, exempting smaller farms, or offering targeted support. Given the importance of food security, moreover, a broader debate is needed on where in the supply chain the costs of going green should fall: on farmers, on taxpayers through even higher subsidies, or on consumers and the food and retail industry.”

Elsewhere, the economics editor of the Times, Meehreen Khan, writes that “a common sense of grievance is uniting farming movements across the EU who say their livelihoods are being sacrificed for free trade and climate change”. Khan notes that from 2022 to 2023, average real incomes for farmers fell by 12%. She says reasons for the decrease include the slow rise in food prices and the introduction of new climate policies. Khan adds: “It is hard to make a direct link between falling productivity and the extra barriers that farmers need to hurdle to access lucrative subsidies under the EU’s €56bn Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the bulk of which gives direct payments to farmers to sustain themselves. That’s because the CAP, by far the EU’s biggest outlay in its common budget, is still very light on conditions compared with most other forms of EU funding, where recipients have to meet certain conditions to access funds.”

The five-category process for classifying hurricanes may have to be altered to capture “category 6” storms in light of climate change, researchers say. The Saffir-Simpson scale for categorising damage based on the wind intensity of storms was introduced in the early 1970s, but currently does not extend beyond category 5 (winds of 157 miles per hour). The researchers propose a “hypothetical category 6” for storms with winds of at least 192mph. The authors say: “A number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm.”