John Kerry, US president Joe Biden’s special envoy for climate change, “plans to step down by spring, ending a three-year run in a major diplomatic role that was created especially for him and which will face an uncertain future with his departure”, reports the New York Times. The newspaper continues: “Kerry, 80, has served as the president’s top diplomat on climate change since early 2021, working to cajole governments around the world to aggressively cut their planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. He led the US negotiating team through three United Nations climate summits, reasserting American leadership after the country withdrew from the Paris climate agreement during the Trump administration. Kerry championed cooperation on global warming between the US and China, the world’s two largest polluters, during times of tension. On Wednesday, Kerry met with Mr Biden in the White House to inform the president of his intention to resign, according to one person familiar with the meeting. On Saturday, his staff learned of his decision at a hastily arranged meeting, said the person, who asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss personnel matters. Kerry told staff that he intended to depart in the coming months. He is widely expected to get involved in the 2024 presidential campaign to help raise awareness of Biden’s work on climate change. No successor has yet been tapped.”

The story was first broken by Axios on Saturday, which added that Kerry “thinks Biden’s reelection is the ‘single biggest’ difference that can be made this year for climate progress at home and globally, a source close to the administration told Axios”. The outlet continues: “Kerry brought a rare stature and deep experience to the job: He’s able to meet with world leaders as well as fellow climate envoys, and has been involved in this issue since his time as a senator. Kerry’s successor will encounter a world that’s increasingly sceptical about US climate commitments in the run-up to the election…Kerry’s longtime Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua [see below], who was brought out of retirement when Biden named Kerry to the post, just retired again. Xie’s plans prompted speculation about Kerry’s future.” The Financial Times, Associated Press and BBC News are among the other outlets covering the news.

In other US news, the Washington Post reports that on Friday the US Environmental Protection Agency “proposed steep new fees on methane emissions from oil and gas facilities, escalating a crackdown on the fossil fuel industry’s planet-warming pollution”. It adds: “The proposed rule represents one of the biggest sticks in a White House climate strategy that has so far dangled carrots. President Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, offers generous financial rewards for businesses that reduce their emissions, but it provides few punishments for companies that fail to do so. The exception is the Methane Emissions Reduction Program, which levies a fee on wasteful methane emissions from large oil and gas facilities. The fee starts at $900 per metric ton of emissions in 2024, increasing to $1,200 in 2025 and $1,500 in 2026 and thereafter. The EPA proposal lays out how the fee will be implemented, including how the charge will be calculated. It comes as the US sees record oil production, and as policymakers around the world increasingly focus on curbing methane, a climate super-pollutant.” Bloomberg also covers the story.

Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that “Edelman, the world’s largest public relations company, was among the Charles Koch Foundation’s highest-paid vendors in 2022, a 990 tax disclosure form shows, alarming climate advocates”, adding: “The PR giant has made numerous climate declarations over the past decade, including making a pledge to eschew projects promoting climate denial. Partnering with a part of the Koch network, which has long worked to sow climate doubt, calls those pledges into question, said Duncan Meisel, the executive director of Clean Creatives, a non-profit pushing creative agencies to cut ties with fossil fuel polluters. ‘A relationship with the Koch network…puts them totally out of step with their stated climate commitments,’ said Meisel. An Edelman spokesperson said the company’s contract with the foundation ended one year ago.”

The rate of deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell by nearly 50% in 2023 compared to the previous year, according to preliminary data from the national space agency Inpe covered by BBC News. Brazil’s environment ministry says it is the lowest recorded deforestation rate in the past five years. The outlet adds: “Though smaller than in previous years, the deforested area is still more than six times the size of New York City. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pledged to end deforestation by 2030 when he took office a year ago. [The data] showed 5,153 sq km (1,989.6 sq miles) of the Amazon were cleared in 2023, down from 10,278 sq km in 2022. President Lula promised to restore the Amazon rainforest and chase down climate criminals during his speech at climate summit COP27 in 2022. Rainforest destruction had surged to a 12-year high under his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.”

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that “deforestation in Brazil’s ecologically sensitive Cerrado biome increased by 43% last year, according to official data that cast a pall over the government’s success in reducing destruction of the Amazon rainforest”. It adds: “A record more than 7,800 sq km of the Cerrado were razed last year, a 43% increase from the previous year, government data showed. In November alone, more than 570 sq km of land was cleared, an area three times larger than in the same month the previous year. The figures will be a blow to [Lula], who since taking office last January has put environmental protection at the heart of his political agenda and has directed more resources to the agencies that maintain Brazil’s diverse ecosystems. The Amazon city of Belém will play host to the key UN COP30 climate summit in 2025.”

The UK prime minister Rishi Sunak has been “accused of trying to avoid scrutiny of his green policies after details surfaced about his government’s failure, over more than 18 months, to appoint a new chair of the independent climate change committee”, reports the Observer. It adds: “Senior environmentalists said they believed Sunak may be deliberately trying to avoid appointing a successor to Lord Deben – who first announced that he was stepping down in July 2022 – until after a general election, so he does not face criticism for his U-turns on green issues. The Observer can reveal that peer and former Tory minister David Willetts, who had been seen as the clear favourite, was interviewed for the post last summer but has since had no further contact at all from the government about the job and no indication as to whether he is still being considered. It is understood that others who were interviewed for the five-year post last summer – including former Tory minister Richard Benyon and former head of the environment agency, Emma Howard Boyd – and the head hunters ministers used to sift applications, have also been left in the dark.” The article quotes a “Whitehall source who knows several people who applied for the post” saying: “No one seems to know what is going on. There could be a number of reasons. Either Sunak does not want anyone in the job because he wants to avoid being criticised in the run-up to a general election or there is a blockage, a disagreement at high level over who it should be. Whatever it is, it is scandalous that a job like this has not been filled when climate change is supposed to be the most urgent question facing humanity.” The article continues: “In July 2022, it was announced Lord Deben had been asked to continue in the post until the end of June 2023, while a new chair was sought. A year and a half later, the chair is still unfilled, with Prof Piers Forster acting as interim head. The committee suffered another blow last week, when its chief executive, Chris Stark, announced he was standing down after six years. Stark is to join net-zero advisory group the Carbon Trust as chief executive.”

In other UK news, the Sunday Times has interviewed Rachel Reeves, the Labour party’s shadow chancellor. The article says: “[Reeves] suggested that Labour was poised to scale back one of its flagship pledges, to invest £28bn a year in green infrastructure. Labour would ‘have to do less’ if Tory spending commitments meant there was less money to spend, she said. The pledge has already been watered down once, moving from an annual commitment to ‘ramping up’ to £28bn over the course of the next parliament. Labour is expected to reduce the headline figure in the wake of the budget. Reeves said that Labour’s pledge included £10bn already committed by the government. ‘Nobody is talking, in the Labour side, about investing an additional £28bn a year,’ she said. ‘If there is not money to invest in what I would regard as incredibly important priorities, we won’t be able to do it. That’s the reality. The fiscal rules will come first. They are not negotiable. If they hand us an inheritance where we can do less, we will have to do less.’ She insisted that Labour was confident it would still hit its target of decarbonising the electricity grid by 2030, highlighting the importance of private investment and planning reform to make building renewable energy infrastructure easier.” The Sunday Telegraph continues to maintain its extreme hostility towards Labour’s plan with a news feature headlined: “Why Keir Starmer’s plan to ‘rewire Britain’ is already coming unstuck. Labour’s goal to create a ‘clean energy superpower’ borders on the fanciful.” A separate article in the Sunday Telegraph is headlined: “Britain’s gas network still using engines from 1960s RAF fighter jets. Ageing aircraft turbines will cost millions to replace, says National Gas chief.” The Sun on Sunday also continues its attacks on Labour’s net-zero plans with a news article and editorial personally targeting Ed Miliband’s “silly” key advisor Eleanor Salter for arguing for a “managed decline” of industries which use fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, the Times reports that “Scottish Power will spend a record amount on upgrading ageing electricity transmission lines that will allow more renewable energy to be transported south of the border from Scotland”. It adds: “The 10-year investment plan is the first in an expected wave of spending set to be announced this year by the three big operators of Britain’s power lines, seen as vital if the country is to meet a target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The Scottish energy group is tendering for £5.4bn worth of contracts to upgrade and expand the electricity network across central and southern Scotland, helping connect between 80 and 85 gigawatts of clean energy to the British transmission system. The cash will be put towards building four new high-voltage power transmission lines, with two running undersea off the east coast of Scotland along with two more onshore cables, the location of which has yet to be finalised.”

China’s coal imports reached a record level in 2023, with a volume of 474.4m metric tonnes, according to the general administration of customs, reports China Daily. This represents a “year-on-year surge of 61.8%”, the state-run newspaper says, adding that the value of the imports rose 24% to 377bn yuan ($53bn). Reuters covers the same news, adding it “was above analysts’ expectations of 460-470m tonnes for the full year”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post says that China is expected to be the top consumer of oil in 2024 “to feed a growing economy”, accounting for over 25% of new oil demand globally. Chinese outlet Jiemian reports that China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), one of China’s largest oil producers, has achieved a new record in oil and gas production from the Bohai oilfield, with production in 2023 exceeding 36.8m tonnes.

Meanwhile, China Energy Net reports that, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China produced and sold “more than 30m vehicles in 2023, reaching a historic high”, of which exports amounted to 4.9m. Another article by China Energy Net reports that, according to market research firm Canalys, the global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs, mainly electric vehicles) are expected to “increase by 29% in 2023”, with China being expected to “maintain its position as the largest market for NEVs…accounting for 55.5% of the global NEV market”. The state broadcaster CGTN says that, in 2023, China exported 1.2m NEVs, a 77.6% increase from 2022, accounting for “over 24% of China’s total auto exports last year”.

Separately, the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily says that on 1 January 2024 the US Inflation Reduction Act “implemented new battery procurement rules”, which are “clear examples” that the US is “politicising economic issues and creating trade barriers in the battery supply chain”. The state-supporting newspaper Global Times reports that the working group on enhancing climate action in the 2020s between China and the US “was launched on Friday via video conference”. Xie Zhenhua, China’s special envoy for climate change, and John Kerry, US special presidential envoy for climate, co-chaired the meeting. The working group will “carry out dialogue related to policies, measures and technologies for controlling and reducing emissions”, among other areas. Finally, Chinese economic outlet Caixin reports that experts are “saying new power plants should be built nearer to where the electricity is most needed”.

German finance minister Christian Lindner has rejected calls for compensation to be paid to citizens facing higher heating and fuel bills due to the increased CO2 price, reports Tagesschau. He says there is to be no more “climate funds” within this parliamentary period, the outlet adds. In an interview with Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung, Lindner says: “From 2025, we can technically make a per-capita payment.” However, it quotes him adding: “Currently, the income [from the CO2 tax] is used to promote heating, building renovations, green steel production, charging stations for electric cars and so on. In short, because one household receives funding for a heat pump, several hundred others cannot receive climate money this year.” Der Spiegel notes that opposition parties are warning of “declining public acceptance of climate measures” due to the “nonpayment of climate funds” for those who produce less CO2.

Meanwhile, WirtschaftsWoche reports that “thousands of farmers” are expected in Berlin today at the climax of the farmers’ week of protests against the abolition of tax relief for agricultural diesel. There have been farmer protests across many German regions for days, causing “significant” traffic disruptions, notes the outlet. German chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Saturday for “calm and a readiness to accept compromises”, warning of “extremists stoking rage against a backdrop of wider discontent”, the Associated Press reports. Scholz said that the government has come up with “a good compromise”, even though farmers continue to insist on fully reversing the subsidy cuts, adds the newswire. 

Finally, the Wall Street Journal carries an editorial on its climate-sceptic comment pages that details the new “post-green” German budget, where “revenue raisers could include an increase in the carbon tax to €45 per metric ton from €40”. The article argues that “all of these costs are being pushed onto households so the government can continue subsidising some heavy industries as planned, including chip manufacturers and steel makers under pressure to decarbonise”. 

There is continuing coverage of the various climate datasets around the world that have, over the past two weeks, confirmed that last year was the hottest on record. The Guardian says: “Last year was the hottest ever reliably recorded globally by a blistering margin, US scientists have confirmed, leaving researchers struggling to account for the severity of the heat and what it portends for the unfolding climate crisis. Last year was the world’s hottest in records that stretch back to 1850, according to analyses released concurrently by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Friday, with a record high in ocean temperatures and a new low in Antarctic sea ice extent. NOAA calculated that last year’s global temperature was 1.35C (2.4F) hotter, on average, than the pre-industrial era, which is slightly less than the 1.48C (2.6F) increase that EU scientists, who also found 2023 was the hottest on record, came up with due to slightly different methodologies.

A separate analysis of 2023 released on Friday by Berkeley Earth has the year at 1.54C above pre-industrial times, which is above the 1.5C (2.7F) warming limit that countries have agreed to keep to in order to avoid disastrous global heating impacts. This guardrail will need to be broken on a consistent basis, rather than one year, to be considered fully breached, however.”

Carbon Brief has published an in-depth summary and analysis of all the datasets, which includes a “look ahead” of what temperatures might look like in 2024. And the Washington Post has a map of “where the world warmed the most in Earth’s hottest year”.

Writing in the Guardian, three prominent climate campaigners argue that “we need to get serious about transitioning off fossil fuels”. They continue: “After Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe did need some short-term supplies of gas to make up for what it was no longer getting from Russia. The US supplied much of it – it already has sufficient export capacity. And now, Europe is swimming in natural gas…The obvious alternative is for countries to work together to spread renewable energy everywhere – in windy Ukraine as it is rebuilt after the war, and in the sun-drenched countries of the global south. Germany – not exactly a tropical nation – now gets more power from the sun and wind than from coal. This isn’t impossible. But it does mean standing up to business as usual. Our diplomats need to realise that security comes, above all, from a stable and working planet, and that we are running out of time to secure that stability; 2023 was the hottest year in the last 125,000, and 2024 is likely to be hotter still.”

Separately, several outlets examine the possible impact of military strikes by the US and UK on the Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been attacking international shipping in the Red Sea. The Times looks at “what the Red Sea air strikes mean for energy, inflation and retail” and BBC News’s economics editor Faisal Islam poses the question: “Is the economy facing another energy price shock?” He writes: “Europe is now much more physically dependent on flows of shipped gas from Qatar, after supplies from Russian pipelines were stopped.

European energy majors have been queuing up to do deals with Doha after Russian taps were turned off. Even if physical supplies could be made up from the US – now the world largest exporter of liquified natural gas – the price would surge on any disruption in the Gulf. A serious escalation could further disrupt the global economy, entrenching inflation, just as the world’s central banks were pondering turning points and cutting interest rates.”

Finally, India’s Down to Earth has published a comment piece by editor Sunita Narain who asks: “How will new globalisation rules take shape in a climate-risked and war-torn world?” She says: “In 2024, we must rework trade rules for a different kind of globalisation. This is important both for the economies in the global south and the fight against climate change.”

The FT’s Lex column says: “The debate about electric vehicles in the UK comes laced with scare stories about hidden costs, suspect environmental credentials, battery lifetime, combustibility and the lack of charging points. The latter is off-putting for motorists considering making the switch. But the concerns, like most others, are exaggerated…Public charging needs to expand to support the EV market. But the cost of EVs, not insufficient charging infrastructure, is the real barrier to adoption.” (See Carbon Brief’s factcheck which details “21 misleading myths about electric vehicles”.)

Meanwhile, the Daily Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner argues that “outsourcing Britain’s nuclear renewal is insanity”, adding that “Rolls-Royce’s modular reactors are an obvious way to break free of EDF’s grip”. He concludes: “If we are to spend £28bn a year of taxpayers’ money on going green, as promised by Labour, we should at least be confident that a large part of the wider economic benefit is reserved for UK supply chains, and is not instead squandered on supporting jobs abroad in France, China, Denmark and the US. Sadly, this latter outcome is about the sum of the present approach to net-zero – punishing economic sacrifice for Chinese gain.”

A new paper presents the results of a citizen science project to digitise around 570,000 weather observations. The observations – recorded in UK Met Office daily weather reports over 1861-75 – include sub-daily sea-level pressure, dry and wet bulb temperatures, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily rainfall amounts from 70 different locations across Western Europe and one in Canada. The authors “highlight how these observations will be used to fill gaps in existing pressure and temperature datasets and use two case studies to show how the pressure observations will likely better constrain the atmospheric circulation during two severe storms”.