Negotiators and other officials have warned that Saudi Arabia has become “the biggest obstacle to an agreement” at COP28, where countries are debating whether to call for a phaseout of fossil fuels, reports the New York Times. It says: “The Saudi delegation has flatly opposed any language in a deal that would even mention fossil fuels…Saudi negotiators have also objected to a provision, endorsed by at least 118 countries, aimed at tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Saudi diplomats have been particularly skillful at blocking discussions and slowing the talks, according to interviews with a dozen people who have been inside closed-door negotiations.” The newspaper explains that the tactics employed by Saudi negotiators include “inserting words into draft agreements that are considered poison pills by other countries; slow-walking a provision meant to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change; staging a walkout in a side meeting; and refusing to sit down with negotiators pressing for a phase-out of fossil fuels”. The article quotes former climate adviser to the UN Linda Kalcher who says that, while “most countries vary on the degree or speed of how fast you get out of fossil fuels”, Saudi Arabia “doesn’t even want to have the conversation”. The newspaper adds that “Saudi officials did not respond to requests for comment”. However, they are not the only country holding back progress, the article notes: “The US has sought to inject caveats into the fossil fuel phase-out language. India and China have opposed language that would single out coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels. Iran and Russia have pushed for provisions to protect natural gas. And many nations, such as Iraq, have raised concerns that ending oil and gas could devastate countries that depend on fossil fuels for income and have asked for more financial support from wealthier countries.” 

The Financial Times also reports that Saudi Arabia is “obstructing” the negotiations, while also “pressuring their presidency, the United Arab Emirates, in a bid to shift the focus away from oil and gas producing nations”. A Gulf official tells the newspaper that the Saudis were not happy with the way the UAE was handling the discussions. And negotiators and European officials tell the outlet that Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 president and head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is “under a lot of pressure” from Saudi Arabia. Speaking on Sunday, Al Jaber said: “The time has come for all parties to constructively engage and to come to me with that language [on the future of fossil fuels]. I want everyone to show flexibility, to act with urgency, and to find the common ground.” Spanish ecological transition minister Teresa Ribera, who represents EU governments in the negotiations, tells Politico that Al Jaber “should be playing not only the role of a moderator, but the role of a leader trying to identify how we can open this pathway toward the outcomes that we need to get”. Ribera says that she expects Al Jaber to make good on his promise to ensure this summit is a “turning point”, adding: “It’s clear that a vast majority of parties represented here want to see a clear pathway toward the decline and phaseout of fossil fuels…But there are also some countries that would like to water down whatever is said about this.” The FT takes a closer look at “hard-charging oil head trying to broker COP28 consensus”.

As COP28 enters its final two scheduled days, Sultan Al Jaber is still seeking “to produce a text that would include a commitment to reduce the world’s consumption of oil and gas for the first time”, Bloomberg says. It continues: “Early on Monday, negotiators were awaiting a draft of the agreement that would try to bridge the gap between countries that want a complete phase-out of fossil fuels and those opposing it…Outstanding issues include a plan to scale up climate finance for the developing world and a framework for helping poorer nations adapt to a warmer planet.” Al Jaber told reporters yesterday that the “time has come for us to shift gears” to deliver a timely and ambitious outcome for the summit, the outlet says, “but the conference appeared to be falling further behind, with a new text that negotiators can work on set to appear four hours later than planned”. In a press conference this morning, Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, said “the areas where options need to be negotiated have narrowed significantly”, adding: “We’re now here to discuss two issues: how high is our ambition on mitigation, and two, are we willing to back this transition with the proper means of support to deliver it.” 

Yesterday, Al Jaber “convened a majlis of all countries, a meeting in the traditional form of an elders’ conference in the UAE”, reports the Guardian. Describing the content of the meeting, Al Jaber said: “I want everyone to come prepared with solutions…I want everyone to come ready to be flexible and to accept compromise. I told everyone not to come with any prepared statements, and no prescribed positions. I really want everyone to rise above self-interests and to start thinking of the common good.” While the question of the future of fossil fuels is “the main sticking point”, it is “not the only one”, the newspaper says: “Developing countries are also angry that their calls for help with adapting to the effects of the climate crisis have not been answered by rich countries at the talks.” Al Jaber reassured developing countries that “we will not neglect any issue, we will not neglect or undermine or underestimate any of the views or the national circumstances of any region or any country”, the Guardian reports, and held meetings yesterday “with all the major groups of developing countries”. Bloomberg, Axios and BusinessGreen also have the story.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has said his team at COP28 is in intensive talks with the US and others to find language on fossil fuels that can bring the two-week climate summit to a successful close. It continues: “[Xie] told reporters on Saturday evening that compromise may lie in the agreement he reached with US counterpart John Kerry at the Sunnylands estate in California last month. That would link the phase-down of fossil fuel to the acceleration of renewables deployment. But the trouble for many diplomats in Dubai will be the Sunnylands statement focused on oil and gas used in power generation, not through the wider economy. Still, Xie, who spent much of Saturday locked in talks with US officials, remained optimistic.” Xie told a press briefing: “We hope to find a clear and correct future direction with good vibes and the greatest inclusiveness, so that everyone can accept and be satisfied with the results…If we do not resolve this issue, I don’t see much chance in having a successful COP28.” The Guardian and Wall Street Journal also have the story, while Reuters reports that Xie described this year’s climate summit as the “hardest” in his career.

Climate Home News says the options in the text on the global stocktake that was released on Friday “were probably too good to last”. It explains: “They all referred to a ‘phase out’ of fossil fuels, not ‘phase down’. That’s largely because petrostates were backing ‘no text’ and refusing to engage further. As it becomes clear that won’t fly, the next version of the text today may contain weaker compromise language.” The outlet details some of the language employed by different countries during negotiations. The Associated Press quotes Lisa Fischer, programme lead at the climate change thinktank E3G, who says there is likely to be loophole language – the world “unabated” before fossil fuels, for example – that leaves options for burning of oil and gas with carbon capture and storage. The key will be how “unabated” will be defined, she says. COP28 president Alok Sharma tells the Observer in an interview that “if you’re going to keep 1.5C alive, you’re going to have to have language on a phase-out of fossil fuels…and you’re going to need to accompany that with a credible implementation plan”. The Washington Post, Guardian, BBC News and Bloomberg have articles on why the phase-out of fossil fuels has become the dominant topic at COP28. Also see Carbon Brief’s detailed Q&A on the topic.

The top official of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) urged member countries in a letter to reject any agreements that target fossil fuels at COP28, reports Bloomberg. The letter, sent early last week, from secretary general Haitham Al Ghais to OPEC’s 13 members warned that oil producers should “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy” in the form of “fossil fuels rather than emissions”, the newswire explains. He continued: “It seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences, as the draft decision still contains options on fossil fuels phase-out…It would be unacceptable that politically motivated campaigns put our people’s prosperity and future at risk.” The letter was also seen by Reuters, which reports a response from Ghais, who said that OPEC would continue to advocate reducing emissions, not choosing energy sources. He said: “The world requires major investments in all energies, including hydrocarbons, all technologies, and an understanding of the energy needs of all peoples.” The Guardian says the letter was also sent to 10 OPEC allies, known as OPEC+ countries, which include Russia and Mexico. 

Reacting to the letter, European Union’s climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said the move “has been seen as out of whack, as unhelpful, as not in tune with where the world stands in terms of the very dramatic situation of our climate”, reports Reuters. He told the newswire that “we’re here not to basically pay attention to our narrowly defined national or financial interests…we’re here to do what is right for the future of the world”. Spain’s ecology transition minister Teresa Ribera called the move “disgusting”, reports Agence France-Presse, while French energy minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher said: “I am stunned by these statements from OPEC+. And I am angry.” Colombia environment minister Susana Muhamad compared the letter to something “out of a science fiction movie”, reports Axios, which adds that various US lawmakers “blasted” the letter. Former Ireland president Mary Robinson said that OPEC is “scared”, adding: “I think they’re worried,” reports the Associated Press. The Independent, Deutsche Welle and Al Jazeera all have the story.

Analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that new emissions-cutting pledges made at the start of COP28 “will still leave the world far off track in limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels”, says the Financial Times. Full implementation of a set of measures – including almost 130 countries agreeing to triple their renewable energy capacity and double their energy efficiency, and 50 oil and gas companies signing up to a methane reduction pledge – “would only reduce the energy-related emissions gap between the current trajectory and a 1.5C scenario by about a third by 2030”, the newspaper says. This would amount to cutting global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by around 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030, says Reuters. The assessment is the “first comprehensive report card on what the COP28 climate talks in Dubai have so far achieved”, says CNN. IEA chief executive Fatih Birol tells the outlet that the pledges were “positive” and in line with some of the recommendations the IEA had made ahead of the talks. However, he adds, “there is a need for more countries and companies to join the pledges – and for agreement on an orderly and just decline of global fossil fuel use if we want to keep the 1.5C goal in reach”.

The chief negotiator for the African group has warned that COP28 has so far failed to deliver on climate change adaptation, reports the Guardian. Adaptation is being discussed as part of the global stocktake (GST), the outlet explains, while the long-awaited global goal on adaptation (GGA) – a collective commitment established under the Paris Agreement to drive political action and finance for adaptation – is also due to be completed in Dubai. However, it continues, “progress has been slow, and countries have yet to agree on measurable targets and guidelines, let alone come up with a workable framework and finance agreements”. The article quotes Ephraim Mwepya Shitima, head of the African group of negotiators, who warns that “adaptation is a matter of survival for us in Africa, it is a life and death issue”. He adds: “We need action and finance to help us adapt with this changing climate, otherwise how will we cope with the severe droughts, the devastating storms, and the rising seas which threaten our very lives … so far we are disappointed by the lack of progress but with a few days remaining, we can still deliver.” Mohamed Adow, founder and director of Power Shift Africa, writes in Climate Home News that “the problem is that here in Dubai, rich countries, especially the US, are blocking progress on the adaptation playbook”.

Meanwhile, Down to Earth reports on the “late-night deliberations striving to find consensus” on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which will set rules on carbon markets and other forms of international cooperation. (See Carbon Brief’s in-depth Q&A for details.) Discussions “saw some progress in refining rules and procedures for market approaches”, the outlet says, but “unresolved issues persist”. An editorial in the Financial Times warns that “the flawed carbon credit trade needs fixing”. With “negotiations over the precise rules and regulations” for the trade of carbon credits “still being hashed out at COP28”, the FT says that the “prize” for fixing voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) “could be enormous”. It notes: “VCMs are not a panacea. They must not divert governments and corporates from directly cutting their own emissions. But given their financing potential, they should not be abandoned, as some advocate. Instead, a more concerted push towards raising their integrity is essential.”

Elsewhere, on the COP28 sidelines on Friday, US climate envoy John Kerry has warned of the “great facade” of carbon capture and storage (CCS), reports Politico. Kerry said it was up to the gas industry “to show us they can capture all those emissions, to tell us whether it’s really going to be part of the future. But don’t lie to people and tell them it’s green. And don’t pretend to people that that’s the main alternative”. The Guardian reports that “at least 475 carbon capture lobbyists” are attending the talks, while both the Independent and Observer report on the prominence of CCS and other technological innovations at COP28.

In other COP28 news, Bloomberg reports that “Indigenous people…young climate advocates and seasoned activists marched in the biggest demonstration yet at the COP28 climate talks on Saturday, an unusual sight in the UAE where any form of protest is severely restricted”. The New York Times and Financial Times also cover the march, while the Independent’s Asia climate correspondent Stuti Mishra speaks to climate activists at COP28 who say the space for protest “has shrunk”.

Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has said that “without the fossil fuels agreement there was not much chance of success at COP28”, reports Reuters. “The positions on the issue are currently very antagonistic and China is trying to find a solution that is acceptable to all”, the newswire quotes Xie as saying. Meanwhile, the US and China are “trying to forge a compromise” on language to reduce fossil fuels at COP28 negotiations, amidst deadlocked negotiations, according to the Wall Street Journal. They are “pitching a third way”, which is a “variation” of language in the Sunnylands statement to boost renewable energy “so as to accelerate” the substitution for fossil fuels. The EU’s “carbon border tax” has faced criticism from representatives of several countries and regions at COP28, including Brazil, Africa, China and India, reports the Chinese energy outlet IN-EN.com. China Energy Net quotes Wang Wenbin, the foreign ministry spokesperson, saying in response to a question about pledges at COP28 on tripling renewable energy that China’s development of renewable energy “has written a ‘green answer sheet’ for the global response to climate change”. The state-run newspaper China Daily quotes Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, saying that the “loss and damage (fund) was a win, but…more is required”. China Dialogue publishes an interview with Avinash Persaud, Barbados’ special envoy on finance, who says that “at some point, China should be a contributor” to the loss and damages fund. Japan News says that China is “suspected of underreporting carbon dioxide emissions”, according to an analysis by the Japanese ministry of environment of satellite data in a report presented at COP28.

Separately, Chinese industry outlet BJX News reports that the state council has issued an “action plan for continuous improvement of air quality”, which proposes that, “while ensuring the security of energy supply, key regions will continue to implement controls on the total consumption of coal”. It asks to “actively carry out the shutdown and consolidation of coal-fired boilers”. Economic outlet Jiemian also covers the story, adding that the plan says that “the goal by 2025 is to achieve a 10% reduction in PM2.5 concentration in cities…compared to the levels in 2020”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post says that the plan will “ban[] the building of new steel factories”. 

The Financial Times reports that China’s foreign ministry director-general for European affairs Wang Lutong said that “China did not believe there was overcapacity in its electric vehicles [EV] sector”. The New York Times writes that China has underestimated the swift growth of its EV industry, resulting in a shortage of skilled technicians. Yicai quotes the chief executive officer of Chinese battery maker SVOLT Energy Technology saying that “the EU is using subsidies to form its own battery industrial chain…Chinese battery makers should stay alert…because it is still possible that the EU may raise trade barriers.” Caixin reports that Turkey has enacted “onerous requirements” for foreign EV importers that are “widely seen as targeting Chinese vehicles”, with imports from the EU and some other countries exempt from the decree.

Next year’s COP29 climate summit is set to take place in “oil-rich Azerbaijan”, reports Politico, after eastern European countries resolved a political deadlock on Saturday. Geopolitical tensions had left the 2024 talks “in limbo for months”, the outlet explains, “with Russia blocking EU countries from hosting and feuding neighbours Armenia and Azerbaijan vetoing each other”. But, at a meeting on Saturday, the 23-country eastern European group backed Azerbaijan, the outlet says, noting that “the bid will still have to be voted on by the entire COP plenary, but that is usually a formality”. The article quotes Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister of ecology and natural resources, who said in a speech: “We are very grateful to all countries, in particular to the Eastern European group and the host United Arab Emirates for their support…We are committed to working inclusively and collaboratively with everyone to ensure the success of COP29. May COP28 lead us forward toward a more sustainable and secure future for all.” 

The decision “quickly drew focus to Azerbaijan’s oil production and its human rights record”, says Reuters, while Bloomberg notes that Baku’s successful bid means the COP “will be held in an autocratic fossil-fuel producing nations for the third year in a row”, following the summits in Egypt and the UAE. Climate Home News reports that Azerbaijan “gets two-thirds of its revenue from oil and gas, one of the highest percentages in the world and more than the COP28 host”. The Guardian and New York Times also have the story.

Argentina will remain part of the Paris Agreement on climate change under incoming president Javier Milei, according to comments made by the country’s new top climate diplomat to Reuters. This is despite Milei’s “past comments that global warming is a hoax”, the article says. Veteran climate diplomat Marcia Levaggi, who arrived at COP28 on Sunday just as Milei was being inaugurated in Buenos Aires, told the newswire she had the full support of the new government. She said: “This is why I came to this COP, to reassure our party stakeholders and people following the process that Argentina will stay committed to the Paris Agreement. We will honour all our environmental agreements…Milei is a liberal, he’s a libertarian, and he believes in market forces. And the market demands to include measures to address climate change.” Levaggi added that Argentina will also keep its commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the newswire says. It also notes that Milei will eliminate the environment ministry as part of a promised effort to shrink the government, but environment will be “distributed among different ministries”, according to Levaggi.

Markus Söder, the German opposition leader and the chairman of the Christian Social Union (CSU), has criticised the federal government’s nuclear policy and, if he participates in the government after the next federal election, he would not only like to restart old nuclear power plants but also expand them, reports Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. Table.Media says that for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and CSU this would be “a departure from the decisions initiated by [ex-chancellor] Angela Merkel” regarding the nuclear phase-out that was “always controversial because of its speed”. According to Bild, the CDU is set to unveil its new policy programme today, revealing a significant shift in its stance on nuclear power. The plan, referred to as the “AKWende” plan by Bild, outlines three main demands. First, Germany is urged to join the nuclear power alliance of 22 nations which has just committed to increasing nuclear power use at COP28. Second, a moratorium on dismantling existing nuclear power plants is proposed, with preparations for restarting six plants that were shut down in 2021 and 2023. Last, the plan calls for the promotion of research and development in next-generation nuclear reactors and fusion technology, with the aim of building the world’s first fusion power plant in Germany. 

Meanwhile, Deutsche Welle reports that German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has pushed for the phase-out of fossil fuels during a speech at the COP28, saying that the “expansion of renewables and energy efficiency alone is not enough to get within reach of the 1.5C track, but we need above all to phase-out fossil fuels”. Politico adds that Germany’s climate envoy, Jeniffer Morgan, said that the full-scale resistance that oil-exporting countries are mounting against a COP28 deal to end fossil fuel use is a sign of “panic”.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has released the first instalment of a new “roadmap” for reforming the world’s food systems in line with 1.5C of warming, reports the Guardian. Published at COP28, the initial document “contains 20 key targets to be met between 2025 and 2050, but little detail on how they can be met”, the outlet says: “The targets include: reducing methane emissions from livestock by 25% by 2030; ensuring all the world’s fisheries are sustainably managed by 2030; safe and affordable drinking water for all by 2030; halving food waste by 2030; eliminating the use of traditional biomass for cooking by 2030.” It notes that further detail on how the aspirations can be achieved will be set out in future instalments at the next two COP summits. The Financial Times focuses on the FAO’s call to “ramp up the production of meat to address widespread hunger and nutrient deficiencies faced by people in developing countries”. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero tells the FT that types of protein, micronutrients, fat and carbohydrates found in meat, eggs and dairy products cannot be adequately sourced from plant-based food, noting: “There’s a need to produce more [meat and dairy] because there’s an enormous amount of countries that are under-consuming those micronutrients and those products…[At the same time] “there are some parts which are over-consuming and, therefore, having health issues.”

In other food-related news, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has said that plant-based alternative meat products are often highly processed and have too much salt, the Daily Telegraph reports, and has urged governments to consider providing more support to the industry. And the Guardian reports that “big meat and dairy lobbyists turn out in record numbers at COP28”.

As COP28 enters its final days, an editorial in the Guardian says that “one of the key battlegrounds” that remains “is that of language: whether fossil fuels will be phased ‘down’ or ‘out’”. The choice is “either reducing carbon energy sources or getting rid of them entirely”, it explains: “The latter would be preferable, but there are many other battles to be won. There will be haggling over whether a transition to a cleaner future should see fossil fuels ‘unabated’, with greenhouse gas emissions released directly into the atmosphere, or “abated”, where carbon capture technology and carbon offsets reduce the harm caused. The latter have so far failed to deliver promised benefits, appearing more of a risk than a solution, in enabling the necessity of replacing fossil fuels to be ducked.” An editorial in the Indian Express says that a “major challenge” before COP28 negotiators is “to lay down a clean-development roadmap that has space for the aspirations of emerging economies and developing countries”.

Meanwhile, Guardian columnist George Monbiot writes that “climate summits are broken” and looks at ways to reform the talks. “The first and most obvious reform is to shut out the lobbyists,” he says, but other proposals for changes have generally fallen “into three categories”. He explains: “One is to improve the way consensus decisions are made. Well-meaning as these are, they’re futile: you can tweak the process, but it will remain dysfunctional. Another approach is to replace consensus decision-making with voting, an option that remains, in draft form, in the UN rules. The obvious objection is that a majority would impose decisions on other nations. But this reflects a narrow conception of what voting could do. There are plenty of ways of ensuring everyone can be heard, without relying on crude binary choices.” A third approach, which “could run alongside the second, is to bypass the COP process by developing new binding treaties”, says Monbiot, such as “treaties on deforestation and the elimination of coal”. But, “however we do it, we need to break the power of the Earth-devouring industries before they break us”, he concludes. 

In other COP-related comment, Bloomberg columnist David Fickling suggests that it is “not a bad thing” that COP is “turning into a trade show”. He explains: “Lavish provision of food, drink, events and golf buggies to ferry delegates around the vast site make it feel as much like an industry conference in Las Vegas as a sobering reckoning with environmental catastrophe. Climate activism, meet capitalism. You two should get to know each other better.” An article in the South China Morning Post by Bernice Lee from the Chatham House thinktank and Chris Coulter of the strategy firm GlobeScan says that leaders at COP28 “must deliver meaningful climate action or face public fury”. The Guardian’s energy correspondent Jillian Ambrose has an analysis piece on how “we really could triple renewables by 2030, but it won’t be a breeze”. And, finally, climate-sceptic columnist Andrew Neil writes in the Daily Mail that the “remarkable increase” in delegates between COP26 in Glasgow and COP28 in Dubai is surely “nothing to do with the fact that Dubai is somewhat sunnier and warmer in December than Scotland’s largest city, with beaches and swimming pools Glasgow can only dream of; or that it has massively more five-star hotels, glitzy restaurants and well-stocked bars”.

New research finds that “wet regions” have experienced a “significant” soil drying trend over 1980-2020, with an average increase in soil drying of 6-10% per decade. The authors assess changes in annual soil drying rates across the globe over 1980-2020 using three observation-based datasets. They find that “enhanced evapotranspiration by atmospheric aridity and high temperatures is the dominant factor increasing the soil drying rate in wet regions”. There is no consistent drying trend in dry regions, the authors add.