The National says “crucial” pre-COP talks are taking place today and tomorrow, which “aim to drive momentum for the crucial UN summit that is now just four weeks away”. The outlet explains: “Pre-Cop is seen as a crucial stage to outline differences in climate issues such as emissions, keeping the 1.5C threshold within reach, scaling up finance and other vital areas such as loss and damage. The ‘global stocktake’, an assessment of where countries stand in meeting the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, is also expected to be front and centre during the two-day event. The preparatory talks are the last formal ministerial engagement before COP28, the presidency said and aims to ensure talks can hit the ground running on 30 November.” Dr Sultan Al Jaber, the United Arab Emirates’ COP28 president, says countries need to find “common ground” over language on fossil fuels and renewables, Reuters reports. It says Al Jaber was speaking at a “pre-COP” summit in Abu Dhabi, “with around 70 ministers and 100 delegations in attendance”. A second Reuters article reports: “The presidency of next month’s COP28 climate summit and two renewable energy organisations on Monday urged governments to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 as part of efforts to stop global warming exceeding 1.5C.” Meanwhile, another Reuters article reports: “The United Arab Emirates will not double up on hosting the United Nations’ annual climate conference by holding next year’s summit, according to leadership involved in the event.” It continues: “Next year’s COP29 climate summit is supposed to be held in Eastern Europe, but Russian opposition to holding the event in a European Union country has left the event without a home – and spurred media reports that the UAE might step in after hosting COP28 in Dubai next month.” The newswire quotes the director general of COP28 Majid Al Suwaidi saying: “The UAE has not been asked and has no intention of hosting COP29…We will not be hosting COP29.” Separately, the Financial Times reports: “The Insurance Development Forum, a World Bank and UN-backed partnership of insurers and international bodies, plans to raise an infrastructure fund of hundreds of millions of dollars to help developing countries deal with the effects of climate change. Speaking to the Financial Times ahead of next month’s [COP28], IDF secretary-general Ekhosuehi Iyahen said the fund would seek to help those countries already ‘feeling the brunt’ of climate change.” Finally, Inside Climate News has a Q&A interview on the loss and damage fund that is supposed to be agreed at COP28.

UK prime minister Rishi Sunak will use the King’s speech on 7 November “to advance expansion of North Sea oil and gas exploration, as well as pro-car policies, in the hope of opening up a clear divide over the green agenda with Labour”, the Observer reports. It continues: “Energy industry sources and senior figures in Whitehall say they expect ministers to announce legislation to usher in a new annual system for awarding oil and gas licences, despite the UK’s commitments to move away from fossil fuels and reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The king’s speech, the final legislative programme before the next general election, is also expected to include measures that will explicitly favour motorists, including making it more difficult for local authorities to introduce 20mph speed limits or supposedly unpopular schemes such as the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez), recently expanded in London.” The paper adds: “Environmental campaigners point out that more oil and gas exploration licences are not only irresponsible, given the climate crisis, but that new laws are not needed to award more licences.” It quotes Tessa Khan of NGO Uplift saying: “Over the past 13 years under this government, new licences – hundreds of them – have led to a couple of months’ worth of new gas being discovered, and only just over a fortnight’s worth actually being produced.” The Times also reports that Sunak will use the King’s speech “to go anti-green”. It explains: “The prime minister is expected to reinforce his move against the green agenda to create clear dividing lines between Conservatives and Labour. With a general election expected within a year, the King’s Speech… is expected to be ‘intensely political’ given the lack of time to introduce measures into law.” The paper says: “The prime minister’s change of tack has been driven by the belief that green measures are unpopular during a cost of living crisis…However, despite the green U-turn, the prime minister’s poll ratings have not improved.” A Sunday Times article previews the government’s 22 November “autumn statement” from the chancellor: “There is also likely to be an update on energy, with the government seeking to speed up the time it takes to connect new energy suppliers to the National Grid amid warnings that the delays are holding back billions in investment.” City AM says “Sunak’s support for National Grid is welcome”.

In other UK news, the Times reports: “74% of Britons are concerned about climate change and 70% believe urgent action is required”. The Daily Express says MPs from the ruling Conservative Party “have called for the ramping up of flood defences across Britain to limit the damage caused by extreme rainfall in the future”. The Financial Times reports: “UK home insurance prices are expected to rise by more than a third over the next two years, according to a new forecast, as insurers respond to their worst year for underwriting in decades by pushing premiums yet higher. Swings in weather, high inflation and strained supply chains all combined to drive up home insurers’ losses last year.” It adds: “Matthew Wheatley, an actuarial partner at EY, said a reassessment of long-term profitability after [recent government] pricing reforms, and the difficulty of predicting longer run losses from weather in an environment of global warming, were making some insurers reassess their presence in the market.” Meanwhile, Reuters reports: “British energy regulator Ofgem has approved plans to pay homes to cut electricity use and help prevent power shortages this winter, it said on Friday.”

Separately, the Daily Telegraph reports that proposals to blend hydrogen into the gas grid “may not offer value for money, the government has admitted”. The paper says: “The government is due to make a decision this year on whether to support blending 20% hydrogen in the gas grid, as a way to boost the fledgling net-zero industry. But a consultation document says it is not yet possible to know whether such a move would be ‘value for money’ because is it ‘not currently feasible to quantify theoretical additional costs’ of blending.” It adds: “A blend of 20% hydrogen is only estimated to cut carbon emissions by 6-7%.” The Times reports efforts by the companies that own the UK’s gas pipes to push back on the recommendation that those pipes should be decommissioned. It explains: “The National Infrastructure Commission said that decarbonising Britain’s energy system should render gas distribution networks obsolete and that ministers should plan to decommission them…[G]as distribution networks believe that their pipes should be converted to carry clean-burning hydrogen that can be used for heating and cooking instead.” Elsewhere, the i newspaper reports under the headline: “Households miss out on energy bills savings due to postcode lottery for net-zero funding.” The Press Association reports: “An environmental activist accused of breaching a court order aimed at restricting protests on the M25 has told a High Court judge that society cannot ‘injunct’ its way out of the ‘climate crisis’.” A brief editorial in the Sun says it is “heartening to hear energy secretary Claire Coutinho say one of her priorities is to tackle the great petrol price rip-off.”.

The UK’s North Sea Transition Authority has issued 27 new oil and gas licences, following a licensing round launched last October, the Press Association reports. It says the authority “said [the licences] have been awarded in areas prioritised because they have the potential to go into production more quickly than others”. The newswire quotes the head of industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK saying the decision is “a boost for UK energy security”. [In a press statement released with its World Energy Outlook last week and covered by Carbon Brief, the International Energy Agency’s executive director Dr Fatih Birol said: “Claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”] The newswire also quotes a spokesperson for Greenpeace saying the organisation planned to “fight these licences in the courtroom”. The Times reports: “One of Britain’s biggest insurers has sounded the alarm over the government’s decisions to weaken its climate policies and expand North Sea oil and gas production.” It continues: “Amanda Blanc, the chief executive of Aviva, said she was ‘worried that UK climate action has stalled this year’ and warned that Britain’s ambitious climate goals were ‘under threat’ due to a lack of practical and detailed plans. ‘This puts at clear risk the jobs, growth and the additional investment the UK requires to become more climate-ready.’” The newspaper adds: “The warning comes on the same day that the government hails the awarding of a raft of new North Sea oil and gas licences as ‘common sense’.”

In related news, the Financial Times reports from the Essar refinery at Stanlow on Merseyside in northwest England under the headline: “‘We need a decarbonisation strategy’: climate shift threatens UK oil refineries.”

The EU and the UK are set to “push the world’s richest countries to end subsidies for foreign oil and gas operations and coal mining at a closed-door OECD meeting next month”, the Financial Times reports, citing “people familiar with the matter”. It continues: “The proposal to cut off the biggest foreign source of public finance for fossil fuels is expected to spark heated negotiations at the OECD’s Paris headquarters…the effort to end subsidies for foreign projects will draw attention to the prevalence of domestic subsidies for oil and gas industries, even as a global deal to end fossil fuel production without the emissions captured at the upcoming UN COP28 climate summit looks increasingly unlikely.”

Climate scientist and “big voice for climate justice” Prof Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), has passed away at his home in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the Times of India reports. The paper continues: “He worked putting linkages between climate change mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development, from the perspective of developing countries, particularly the least developed countries.” It adds that Huq was a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change third assessment report and coordinating lead author on the fourth assessment. Bangladesh’s Daily Star reports: “As a leading global figure in climate change research and policy, Huq sent us a column each week for the past many years, besides when he couldn’t – which was rare.” The paper says Huq “holds the distinction of being the only Bangladeshi to have attended every UN climate change COP till last year”. It adds: “Nature, a leading international science journal, acknowledged his contributions in 2022 by naming him among the top ten scientists of that year.” Dhaka Tribune also reports on Huq’s passing. The Business Standard and Down to Earth carry obituaries.

Xia Yingxian, director of the ministry of ecology and environment (MEE)’s department of climate change, who has recently assumed his new role, says that China looks forward to seeing “a full response to developing nations’ concerns” at COP28, reports the state-run newspaper China Daily. Xia adds that developed countries “bear an unshakable historical responsibility for global climate change and also now have the capacity to address it”. According to Emirates News Agency, UAE’s state news agency, Xia adds that Chinese officials are working with Chinese companies to ensure a strong presence” at COP28. Bloomberg writes that the Chinese government is set to appoint Liu Zhenmin, one of its top diplomats who “befriended the US”, to replace veteran climate envoy Xie Zhenhua, a shift that could “impact delicate US-China relations”. The replacement might happen after the COP28, according to people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, several Chinese outlets cover Xia Yingxian’s press conference last Friday at the ministry of ecological environment (MEE). The Communist Party-backed newspaper Global Times notes Xia saying China will “continuously reduce carbon emission intensity, achieve a renewable energy installed capacity of over 1.2TW (terawatts) and increase forest coverage to 24%”. The Paper reports that Xia called for the “respect for different starting points and national conditions of each country”. He stressed that COP28 should reach a “strong decision on a global adaptation goal and complete the development of the financial mechanism for loss and damage, fully responding to the long-standing call from developing countries for financial, technological and capacity-building support”. The energy outlet BJX News writes that Xia said that, during the second compliance period (2021-2022) of the national carbon emissions trading market, 60% of 2,257 enterprises complied, covering an annual CO2 emission exceeding 5bn tonnes. Jiemian notes Xia saying the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction registration and trading systems will be launched and “operational soon”. The state broadcaster CGTN also covers the news. 

Separately, NBC News reports that Chinese ecology and environment minster Huang Runqiu said last Thursday during his meeting with California governor Gavin Newsom that “his ministry would continue to carry out agreements under a memorandum of understanding signed last year between China and California ‘in carbon market investment, climate adaptation, environment law implementation and human-to-human exchange’ to strengthen cooperation and have a positive effect on China-US environmental cooperation”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post writes that, according to the International Finance Corporation (IFC), China will need to spend “$1.33tn”, if it wants to make the “construction industry chains greener”. Reuters says that Beijing’s decision to limit graphite exports will “disproportionately affect” foreign manufacturers of electric vehicle battery components who have not transitioned to using synthetic materials as extensively as their Chinese counterparts.

Countries that host the world’s three largest rainforests have agreed to cooperate to limit deforestation and protect biodiversity, Reuters reports, adding that they “fell short of a concrete alliance to protect the vital carbon sinks”. The newswire explains: “The announcement came on the final day of the Congo Republic-hosted Three Basins summit, which brought together presidents, NGOs, technical experts, and finance sector officials to strengthen governance and preservation of the Amazon, the Congo basin, and forests in Southeast Asia.” It adds: “Over the three days of the summit in Brazzaville, experts and policymakers from countries with tropical forests discussed shared priorities ahead of the UN COP28 climate talks next month. They examined different funding mechanisms to help developing countries preserve their important ecosystems.”

Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador cut support for the country’s disaster relief fund two years ago, the Independent reports, adding that “the decision has left much uncertainty as to how the region will recover from the category 5 [Hurricane Otis] which left 27 people dead and at least $10bn in damage in the city of Acapulco and neighbouring villages”. Another Independent article reports: “Frustrations are growing in the Mexican city of Acapulco over the sluggish government response in the wake of a devastating hurricane.” Axios says Otis “is likely to be one of the most expensive extreme weather disasters in Mexico’s history”. Separately, Reuters reports: “Mexican president Obrador’s first finance minister has issued a stern verdict on his former boss’s energy policies, describing them as harmful to the country, out-of-date and eroding investor confidence.”

German chancellor Olaf Scholz made his third visit to sub-Saharan Africa in two years this weekend, “as conflicts elsewhere highlight the growing importance of an energy-rich region in which Berlin has traditionally had little involvement”, reports Reuters. Business Insider notes that, according to German Greens’ lawmaker Anton Hofreiter, “the understanding that Germany and Europe need Africa more than they previously realised served as a major catalyst for the trip”. The German government aims to establish an energy partnership with Nigeria to buy liquified “natural” gas (LNG), as the West African country “does not use” its gas reserves, mainly relying on oil, notes Table.Media. “Nigeria has the biggest gas supply in Africa,” Scholz was quoted by the Punch, a Nigerian newspaper, as saying, reports Deutsche Welle. Likewise, in Senegal, the chancellor hopes that German companies and Nigerian partners will collaborate to develop water and wind technologies for “green hydrogen” production, adds the media outlet. Der Spiegel also covers the story, adding that in Senegal, Scholz offered German participation in the development of gas fields off the coast of the West African country, a move that has been criticised by climate activists. 

A feature in the Sunday Times says two major energy deals in the US, by oil giants Chevron and Exxon, “could put net-zero on the back burner”. The feature says: “Big Oil is back with a bang – and thumbing its nose at predictions just last week by the likes of the International Energy Agency (IEA), that demand for oil will peak this decade. But as the rows over climate and oil intensify, what do these deals tell us about the state of the industry? And who is right about when the world will hit ‘peak oil’?” The piece quotes Chevron and Exxon executives saying they disagree with the IEA’s outlook, as does the Opec oil producers’ cartel. However, the piece adds: “Scratch the surface, though, and there are hints that Chevron and Exxon are bracing for an uncertain future…Maria Pastukhova at the thinktank E3G, added: ‘I think it shows these companies don’t want to risk exploring new reserves; they would much rather buy proven reserves from others.’” Meanwhile, an article in the Times reports: “ExxonMobil and Chevron have both reported third-quarter profits sharply down after oil and gas prices receded from last year’s highs.” A comment for the Financial Times by columnist Helen Thomas reflects on the difference in approach being taken by US and European oil companies. The piece is titled: “Big Oil’s transatlantic strategy gulf has never been wider – and that is OK.” She writes: “One conclusion [after the US deals] has been that the European sector will have to respond to this upscaling of their rivals. It’s not obvious why.” In related news, the Financial Times reports: “Chevron’s deal to buy Hess last week for $53bn gives the US supermajor access to one of the hottest prospects in the global resources industry: Guyana’s 11bn barrels of offshore oil.” Inside Climate News asks if oil firm ConocoPhillips is “looking to expand its controversial Arctic oil project”.

A Financial Times “big read” trailed on the frontpage of Monday’s paper asks if Bangladesh will “come to regret its dash for gas”. The feature says: “The country is one of several that regarded LNG as a cleaner short-term alternative to coal, but prices have soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” Politico carries an interview with Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina, during her trip to Brussels last week. It notes that Hasina and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen jointly announced a €400m investment package for Bangladesh, which is “heavily focused on the renewable energy sector, including solar and wind projects which will add 750 megawatts of peak generating capacity”. The outlet adds: “Climate change is a huge challenge for Bangladesh, a low-lying country that is regularly battered by cyclones and heavy flooding; the emphasis on renewable energy and the green transition in the EU’s package fits well with the Global Gateway vision to deliver investment in line with the sustainable development goals.”

In a comment for the Guardian, Unicef goodwill ambassador and climate activist Vanessa Nakate describes findings from the International Energy Agency last week that coal, oil and gas demand will peak this decade, as “a death knell for fossil fuels”. She writes: “In response, leaders of rich countries will be showing off wind turbines on their coasts and pointing to shiny electric cars on their streets. But they’ve spent the past few years persuading African countries to increase their gas expansion instead…Rich countries have always had their eyes on Africa as a new source of gas, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up prices, their thirst for African gas has increased as their own energy security has wobbled.” Nakate continues: “There’s no need to double down on failing fossil fuels in Africa when we have never-ending wind and sun. We are the world’s youngest continent, full of entrepreneurs ready to deliver a manufacturing revolution in global renewables. Nobody is more motivated to tackle the climate crisis than Africans: the continent hit hardest that the did least to cause it. We can deliver a world powered by wind and solar – with the calmer climate, cheaper bills and reliability that come along with it. When African people get to choose, we choose renewables. But will rich countries finally allow us to determine our own future?” She concludes: “Will rich nations’ governments keep holding Africa back by making us a dumping ground for the dying fossil fuel industry? Or will they finally let us lead the world in delivering a secure, just and clean future?”

A post from Dr Hannah Ritchie on her Sustainability by Numbers blog takes figures from a recent paper to show that, contrary to the widely cited 2008 estimates by the late former chief scientific adviser to the Department of Energy and Climate Change, Prof David MacKay, the UK has ample wind and solar potential to meet all its energy needs. She quotes MacKay saying in his final interview saying the “idea that renewable energy can power the UK is an appalling delusion” and that the country should focus on nuclear and carbon capture and storage instead. Ritchie explains why MacKay’s numbers are now wrong: “[T]he world has changed a lot since 2008. Costs have plummeted in the last decade. New wind designs have come online. And public support for climate action and clean energy has shifted. David’s approach is still invaluable, but his numbers are out-of-date. This sector is moving quickly, and we can’t use analyses from 2008 to guide policy decisions.”

In a comment for Forbes, Michael O’Boyle of thinktank Energy Innovation writes: “Inflation has hit the entire energy sector, and renewable energy is no exception…While renewable energy costs fell fast over the past decade, those declines recently levelled off, and in some cases, reversed. But this temporary development doesn’t mean we should abandon clean energy or fossil fuel plant retirements.” He adds: “Our research shows the main factors driving renewable energy cost increases tend to be temporary, and costs are still competitive with fossil fuels, which suffered volatile price swings and drastic cost increases in 2022.” In the Daily Telegraph, meanwhile, omnipresent climate-sceptic commentator Ross Clark writes under the headline: “The case for wind power was built upon a myth.” Following comments last week by the head of energy firm RWE over the price needed to build new offshore windfarms in the UK, Clark says: “The maximum strike price the government offered was £44 per MWh [megawatt hour]. According to RWE it won’t receive any bids until this is raised to between £65 and £75.” Clark concludes: “Renewables never were particularly cheap – and they are likely to get a lot more expensive.” [He does not mention the price of gas-fired power, which was £95/MWh in the most recent weekly data and £98/MWh in 2023 to date.] In other comment from the UK, the Daily Telegraph gives space to notorious climate sceptics Jordan Peterson and Bjorn Lomborg, in which they make a series of reheated and misleading assertions about climate change and the “inefficient diversion of hundreds of trillions of dollars to steer the global economy abruptly towards zero carbon emissions”. The pair write: “We need to foster an environment that challenges fearmongering and promotes optimistic yet critical thinking and constructive discussion with regard to the future. We hope that our new Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) which will host its first international conference in London next week will be of aid in this regard, bringing people of good will and good sense together from around the world, to formulate and communicate a positive vision of the future.”

The Denman Glacier in East Antarctica will contribute 0.33mm per year to global sea level rise until the year 2300 – a level that is “comparable to half of the contemporary sea level contribution of the entire Antarctic ice sheet” – according to new research. The authors model ice shelf melting of the Denman and Scott Glaciers in East Antarctica, including the influence of meltwater that flows from beneath the glaciers out to sea, known as “subglacial discharge”. The research suggests that subglacial discharge could make Antarctic glaciers lose ice faster than previously thought.